Real Estate Information Archive

Well, it's interesting. For the second year in a row we are noticing a lot of activity during a time of the year that most people write off as non-productive. We have 6 homes under contract in the last 7 days. We've even been able to settle on a couple of short sales and foreclosures that have been sitting for months without resolution. It seems that anything that shows well and is priced CORRECTLY is selling quickly. We have a garage townhome in Kingstowne under contract in 2 weeks. Why? It has a brick front, 3 bedrooms, hardwoods on the main and lower level and the sellers let us put the right price on to begin with, instead of chasing the market down like a lot of unfortunate sellers do.

I've got some stats here, courtesy of MRIS (our multiple listing service). I'll start with zip codes 22315 and 22310. These are closest to our office in the Kingstowne area and are remarkably accurate in giving us a feel for the market and it's movements. We check it daily. There are 258 properties available. That's everything from a 1 bedroom condo to  million dollar homes. There are 89 under contract. That's a 34% absorption rate. Not bad, considering that a short time ago we were hovering at 325 units for quite some time. But there's more: a lot of these are new homes, not even built yet. A number of them show really badly, and a lot of them are way overpriced so those won't sell. So the good ones are selling.

Out of the 258, 127 are detached. 40 are under contract for an absorption rate of 31%. This figure no doubt is affected by the older homes that are in 22310, many of which are short sales.

There are 89 townhouses on and 40 under contract for an absorption rate of 43%. This is GOOD news that you don't hear about from the local media. Contrast that with 12-18% absorption rates of earlier in the year. The amounts that prices have come down and the super-low interest rates are starting to kick in.

Condos---39 are available and 11 are under contract---28% absorption rate.

In Lorton the numbers tell a very positive story. There are 198 properties on the market and 100 under contract. That's a whopping 51% absorption rate. People like newer homes. Lorton has them and they've been beaten up for a long time price-wise.

Springfield is not far behind. There are 441 homes on the market and 210 under contract for a 48% absorption rate.

Alexandria comes in with 1023 homes available and 300 under contract for a 29% absorption rate. This encompasses a wider area and would need to be more specific to glean the meaning. For example it's tough to compare a townhouse in Old Town with some areas that are further out and having problems with a lot of foreclosures and short sales still hurting the neighborhood.

What does all this mean? Well, each year inventory seems to go down around this time. Some sellers are tired of the process and don't want their homes on around the holidays so they take them off. Others decide to start the process after the New Year, so they wait to put them on. And, because we are in the DC Metro area, there are always people buying and selling, so the good ones that are value-priced are selling. That keeps inventory down right around now.

At Tom & Cindy and Associates we always advise those thinking of selling to go on right after the first weekend of the new year. Our spring market doesn't begin when the azaleas bloom. It begins right after people put away the Christmas tree, say goodbye to the relatives, and start thinking about where they want to move. There is less competition then and lots of interested buyers.

Tom Pietsch                                                                                                                                                  

Activity has picked up the last 2 weeks. Usually people ask us when the spring market starts. We usually surprise them by saying that it begins about January 15th. This year it has started much later. But we are happy to say it HAS started. Prices are not rising, but activity is. We are receiving more visits to listings, and more offers are chugging through the fax machine. Here are some local stats---as you'll see, the homes in great condition and correctly priced are selling----the rest are sitting. Some pockets (or products) are doing better within the same area. Note, for example the difference between condos in 22315 and 22310, and detached homes. In this case, it's because in 22310 there are quite a few older homes that are not priced reflective of where the market is. Anyway, here are the stats:

In 22315 and 22310 zip codes (the Kingstowne area) there are 321 homes on the market. There are 95 under contract for an absorption rate (AR) of 30%. There are 28 single family detached under contract out of 150 for an AR of 19%. There are 123 townhomes available and 50 under contract. This makes an AR of 41%. For condos, the AR is higher still at 42% with 19 under contract and 45 available.

In Lorton, pricing is even more key to selling. There are 298 homes available in zip code 22079. Only 51 are under contract. This means the absorbtion rate is only 17%. For detached homes, there are 21 under contract and 135 available. The AR is 15%. Townhomes is a slightly brighter picture. There are 135 available. 29 are under contract for an AR of 21%. But condos are much lower. There are 26 available. Only 3 are showing under contract. This gives an AR of 12%. If you are priced wrong in this category, you will sit on the market for a long time.

Springfield shows closer to the Kingstowne area. There are 698 homes available in Springfield. 149 are under contract. That's an absorption rate of 21%. Detached homes make up 454 of the available listings. 88 are under contract for an AR of 19%. Again, Springfield has quite a few older homes that, if not priced right will sit for long periods, especially in neighborhoods plagued with forclosures and short sales. Townhomes are doing much better in general. There are 208 available and 57 under contract for an AR of 27%. There are 46 condos available and only 3 under contract., for an AR of 12%.

Again, the positive, and we are "glass half full" people is that a lot of homes are selling and the inventory is remaining pretty much the same, even at the time of year that it typically rises. But to be successful, condition and price remain crucial factors.

 Tom & Cindy’s 2008 Spring Market Update

As we look forward to the spring market, Cindy and I wanted to give homeowners an update on market conditions and our insight as to where we are headed.

Current conditions still favor buyers, as they have since early 2006. With the benefit of hindsight, we know that the height of the market was April, May, and June of 2005. Since then, the inventory of available homes has gone up and buyers have been able to negotiate purchase prices, ask for closing cost assistance and often both. Sellers, if they’ve been unable or unwilling to price their homes correctly, have seen their properties sit for months.

Let’s look at absorption rates. I am writing this on February 3^rd. Right now, according to MRIS (the Multi-Regional Information System---our MLS) in the Kingstowne area there are 320 homes for sale. There are 76 under contract. That means that 24% of the current inventory is under contract. We have a little over a 4 month supply of homes available. In Lorton that absorption rate is 16%. In Springfield it is 18%.

 As many of you know we are also being affected by foreclosures and short sales in the marketplace.

What does this all mean? It’s not all gloom and doom like a lot of the media would have you think. It’s easy with the help of MRIS to see that homes are selling every day. Just in the month of December 249 homes sold in Alexandria, Lorton and Springfield. We have sold over 440 homes since the beginning of 2006. Buyers are doing their homework, seeing a lot of houses, and making their offer on the one that represents the best value in the area and price range they are looking in. If your home is the best value, it WILL sell, and sometimes quickly.

In real estate, you always hear the buzz-words location, location, location. Our long experience tells us that just about anywhere in Northern Virginia is a good location for someone. Price and condition is what really sells houses. If your walls are orange, paint them. If your pink carpet is stained, replace it. You’ll be glad you did. Upwards of 80% of buyers are beginning their search on the internet. If they see photos or virtual tours that make a property look unappealing, or like they’ll have to do too much work to make it livable, they just won’t come to see it.

Also, price your house correctly, or you risk chasing the market down. It’s sad when we see otherwise smart people that just can’t come to grips with the true market value of their property. One thing about real estate----you always find out the answer in the end. When a house sells, the final price is public knowledge.

It is a great time to be a buyer. If you’re selling and buying, this is a good time for you too, as long as you’re not “upside down” on your mortgage. Interest rates are at or near all time lows. Prices of homes are at the levels they were in the fall of 2003. There are great deals out there and often you can get sellers to pay your closing costs for you.

 Long-term, we’re very bullish on this area. With the Ft Belvoir BRAC, the renewal project at Springfield Mall, the just-approved 4 office towers at the Kingstowne Town Center, the Lorton Arts Center and so many other positive things going on, we believe that over time property valuations will begin to rise.

As the top real estate team in the Alexandria/Springfield/Lorton area, whether you’re selling or buying, give us a call. We’ll put our all into getting you the highest and best offer possible in today’s market for your home, and the best deal possible for the home you want to purchase.

Here is a quick update on our local real estate market. At Tom & Cindy and Associates we study the statistics and are able to note micro-changes we see that can be of value to our clients.

I'll talk about Lorton first. There are 290 homes on the market. Of those 35 are under contract for an absorption rate (AR) of 12%. Of these 143 are detached homes. 15 are under contract for an AR of 10%. There are 130 townhouses on with 20 under contract for an AR of 15%. There are 24 condos on and 2 under contract for an AR of 8%.

In Springfield, there are 646 homes on the market. 96 are under contract which is an AR of 15%. 414 of the homes are detached and 59 are under contract for an AR of 14%. 198 are townhomes with 31 under contract for an AR of 31%. 38 condos are available with 7 under contract for an AR of 18%.

In the Kingstowne area, there are 342 homes on the market with 57 under contract for an AR of 17%. Of those, 153 are single-family detached with 18 under contract for an AR of 12%. There are 140 townhouses, with 27 under contract for an AR of 19%. There are 48 available condos and 14 under contract for an AR of 29%.

What does all this mean? Well, condition and price are king. People that say homes are not selling are just plain uninformed. Homes ARE selling (our team has sold 4 this week), but it is the savvy seller that is successful. Staging, pricing, marketing, and negotiating are more important than ever before.